Midterm outlook bleak for conservatives

Democrats could take the House

Please help me reach the crucial 100 paid subscriber level.

If you’re a conservative, the latest midterm forecast is not exactly encouraging reading.

According to a new election projection highlighted by The Hill, Democrats are currently positioned to retake control of the House of Representatives, while the Senate is projected to end up in a razor-thin 50-50 split. In other words, Republicans could find themselves with divided government for the final two years of President Trump’s term.

Now, forecasts are just that—forecasts. They are not election results. We’ve all seen supposedly sophisticated models get things wrong before. Polls have margins of error. Assumptions change. Candidate quality matters. Events happen. Wars break out. Recessions occur. Scandals emerge. The future has a nasty habit of refusing to cooperate with political scientists.

Still, if this projection proves accurate, conservatives should be concerned.

A Democratic House would effectively put an end to any meaningful legislative agenda coming out of the administration. Every major initiative would be dead on arrival. Congressional investigations would immediately shift into high gear. I’d expect articles of impeachment to be introduced almost before the new Speaker finishes taking the oath of office.

Of course, impeachment and removal are two different things. Even under this forecast, there would be nowhere near enough votes in the Senate to convict President Trump. Any impeachment effort would likely amount to political theater rather than a genuine attempt to remove him from office.

We’ve seen this movie before.

Bill Clinton was impeached and remained in office. Donald Trump was impeached twice and remained in office. Democrats even pursued impeachment proceedings after the events of January 6, when Trump was already on his way out the door. If history is any guide, another impeachment would generate plenty of cable news ratings while accomplishing very little.

The larger consequence would be gridlock. If Democrats control the House and Republicans hold only a precarious Senate advantage—or merely a tie broken by the vice president—we could be looking at two years in which almost nothing significant gets accomplished legislatively. Some people may consider that a feature rather than a bug. After all, the less damage Washington does, the better.

But gridlock has consequences. Budget fights become more frequent. Debt ceiling battles become more dangerous. Government shutdown threats become routine. Congress is already showing signs of dysfunction, and there are growing concerns in Washington about future funding battles and legislative paralysis. Another factor nobody likes to discuss is age.

The Senate remains one of the oldest institutions in American public life. Many senators are well into their seventies and eighties. As we were recently reminded by the passing of Lindsey Graham, tomorrow is promised to no one. A chamber divided by only a seat or two can change dramatically because of illness, retirement, resignation, or death. Political control can turn on events nobody can predict.

From my perspective, the most troubling aspect of a Democratic House isn’t simply that Democrats would hold the gavels. It’s that today’s Democratic Party increasingly finds itself pulled leftward by activists and organizations that were once considered fringe. During the Biden years, progressive factions exerted enormous influence over policy discussions, and there is every reason to believe they would attempt to do so again.

Whether you call it progressivism, democratic socialism, or something else, the pressure within the Democratic coalition is unmistakable. Moderate Democrats often find themselves looking over their shoulders at primary challengers and activist groups that demand ideological conformity.

That doesn’t mean the forecast is destiny. In fact, one reason these projections matter is that they can become self-fulfilling. If conservatives decide the election is already lost, many won’t bother to vote. If liberals believe victory is inevitable, they become energized. That’s one reason political forecasts should always be treated with healthy skepticism.

As President Trump often says, we’ll see what happens, and what happens depends on what we do.

If you’re a sensible-center voter, a conservative, a classical liberal, or simply someone who thinks Washington already has enough problems without adding more ideological extremism, then the answer isn’t despair. The answer is participation. Vote. Encourage your friends to vote. Talk to your neighbors. Support candidates you believe in.

The future isn’t written yet, and that’s the good news.

As always, I appreciate your readership and especially your paid subscriptions. They help me continue writing, researching, and reaching new readers as we head toward what could be one of the most consequential midterm elections in recent memory.

If you’re inclined to support this effort, now is a great time to hit the orange subscribe button….

And if you enjoyed this article, please click the heart icon, share it on Substack, use the arrow icon below right to post it to your social networks,U and email it to friends and family who might appreciate a little common sense in an increasingly uncommon world.